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Vietnam to be one of fastest-growing economies in 2021: Moody’s Analytics

Illustrative image (Source: VNA)

Moody’s Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corporation, has forecast Vietnam, together with China and Hong Kong (China), would see the fastest growth in 2021, thus making the Asia-Pacific region lead the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moody’s Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corporation, has forecast Vietnam, together with China and Hong Kong (China), would see the fastest growth in 2021, thus making the Asia-Pacific region lead the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The Asia Pacific economy has done the best job of containing COVID-19 and it is rebounding with the global recovery of industrial production and global trade. Further, it enjoys a level of fiscal support in many countries that will keep a floor under the economy and preserve enterprises and household financial conditions so that they are able to contribute to economic recovery,” said Moody’s Analytics chief Asia-Pacific economist, Steve Cochrane.

However, while the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic outlook expects growth across the entire Asia-Pacific region in 2021, economic recovery in the region will not be fully complete until international travel and tourism flourish once again.

The true impact is when growth rates are combined with the depth of each country’s downturn, which determines when each country’s GDP returns to a new peak level.

China has already achieved this in the second quarter as it rebounded quickly from its recession that started in early January. Taiwan and Vietnam will be at new peaks by the time Q4 of 2020 comes to an end, said Moody’s Analytics.

On the other end of the spectrum, Japan, the Philippines and India will not surmount new peaks until the second half of 2022. Japan’s slow rate of growth combined with a longer recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2019 will delay its shift back into economic expansion. India and the Philippines were the two hardest hit by the economic impacts of the pandemic and have the deepest holes to climb out of.

VNA